Spring and the economy

Spring is here. Officially, statistically and literally. The streets are once again lined with bright hues of varied colors; the paths are filled with falling flowers, their smell varying from pleasant to unpleasant over the course of a few days and the multi-layered jackets are more than happy to lay folded in comfort till the onslaught of next wave of winds, come autumn.

The promise of a long, bright, sunny day seems realistic as much the promise of an improving economy. Like the economy (we are talking US here) which hasn't quite decided for itself if wants to sulk in the recessionary undercurrents for a while or if it wants to zoom ahead into the recovery phase, the spring weather seems to be dilly dallying between providing us with hot sunny days and cold windy days. The trees themselves are so confused - I am told that instead of waiting for flowers to wither out, this time the leaves turned up on the trees at the same time as flowers, decorating the trees with a tinge of green all over.

This is my second year in the US and this spring is so much different from the last one when I was wearing a sweatshirt even in May. Maybe, last year what spring had to offer was in line with what economy had to offer - cold and indifferent - negative quarter to quarter real GDP growth rate in Q1 and Q2 09, unemployment rate of around 8-9%. Compare it to this year March data - unemployment still over 9% at 9.7% with a positive expected GDP growth rate for Q1 of 2010. Is economy warming up enough to make every job seeker cozy and comfortable in a new position and will it still leave out most of them cold - well, going by the weather, it is getting difficult to predict and I will leave the job of forecasting to all those brilliant brains out there who whack their heads to come up with some sensible predictions for the economy. Let me not delve into those abstruse theories of business cycles, growth rates, labor productivity etc. My two cents, on sunny days, don your favorite summer dress and head to the nearest park to enjoy the weather as it unfolds its true colors (literally).

Did I hear anyone mention global warming?